WAPR

Worldwide AI Proliferation Registry

AI compute cannot be spoofed. It consumes power, and power leaves a public trace.

An independent, deterministic record of where AI infrastructure is, who operates it, what it draws, and what no instrument can reach. Every panel names its source and shows its status. No figure on this page is produced by a language model.

—Virginia sites the records as data centresVA DEQ layer 294
— creations observedHugging Face, first seen since 2026-09-14
—GW of announcedregister · operating shown separately
—facilities plotteddeclared frame

What you are looking at

The idea

AI runs in buildings full of computers. Those buildings need enormous amounts of electricity, and electricity leaves paperwork: permits, grid filings, pollution reports, equipment orders. WAPR collects that paperwork every day and publishes what it adds up to.

How to read a panel

Each panel below is one instrument. It shows a number, where the number came from, how fresh it is, and what is wrong with it. Most panels carry a lamp in their corner: Live when its feed reported within its window, Degraded when it is running with something wrong, or when the register or one-time snapshot it reads has a stated shortfall, Blind when its feed has not reported within its window, or when a register or a count is blind by design (the panel says which), Contested when the method itself is disputed. The key directly above the instruments shows each mark. Panels also list their own known defects: FATAL breaks the method, BIAS skews the answer, GAP means something needed is missing.

Why it says “blind” instead of zero

If an instrument cannot see, this page says so rather than printing a zero — a quiet instrument is not the same as a quiet world. Where a blind instrument still shows a figure, it is the last one it reported, with its date, drawn muted. Most bars on this page are shares of a total, and say which total; they are not error bars. Where a panel draws a range around a mark instead, the range is labelled with what it spans — on the compute-capacity panel, a 95% interval. No number on this page is produced or estimated by an AI.

Who runs this, and how new it is

WAPR is operated by BATECH LLC, a private company. It is not run for profit, carries no advertising, and nobody pays to appear here or to be left out. It is also young: several of the daily records below began collecting in September 2026. Where a panel speaks about change over time it is either drawing on an older published figure — labelled a — or saying plainly that it cannot yet. A long-run record has to start somewhere. How this is kept independent →

WAPR Condition

One overall condition level, set by the fixed rules WCI-1 over the WCI registers and the lamps of the panels it counts — never over raw anomaly counts. Anomaly volume is what chance looks like (protocol MV-1); scan output stops at the watchlist. Blind · Awaiting feed

In plain terms: 5 is the least serious reading and 1 the most.

—
  1. 5NOMINAL
  2. 4ATTENTION
  3. 3ELEVATED
  4. 2SEVERE
  5. 1CRITICAL

Awaiting data feed

How this is known
  • Awaiting data feed
Rules WCI-1 — recompute this level yourself
LevelRule — first match wins, top down
1 · CRITICALAny open L3-published finding of an uncontrolled agent, or a verified multi-channel critical event (two independent channels agreeing, per MV-1.8 and the TRACKER §0 escalation rule), ≤ 90 days old.
2 · SEVERE≥ 1 open L2 candidate on a critical claim, or ≥ 2 open L2 candidates of any kind.
3 · ELEVATED≥ 1 open L2 candidate.
4 · ATTENTION≥ 1 open L1 watchlist item, OR more than 2 panels blind — the index degrades when the instrument cannot see. Blindness is never “all clear”.
5 · NOMINALNone of the above.

Ladder terms are protocol MV-1.8: L1 = watchlist (one channel at p<0.01, or a BH survivor) · L2 = candidate (two independent channels at p<0.01, in band, controls flat) · L3 = published (the full gate, registration hash cited). The registers live in the repository at data/wci/, are hand-curated with provenance, and scan output never enters them directly (MV-1.0). Watchlist deltas could at most separate level 5 from 4, and only with a null-expected count beside them (MV-1.1); no null model exists yet — the archive is too young — so today they are shown as context and move nothing.

What the readings mean

Each conclusion is a fixed rule over the instruments’ numbers, drawn only when its inputs are present, and carries its own caveat.

In plain terms: these sentences are produced by fixed rules applied to the instruments’ numbers — not by someone deciding what to say, and not by an AI. A rule whose inputs are missing draws no sentence; where it records why, the reason is printed in its place. A sentence whose inputs are stale is still drawn, and the status line under it says so.

  1. Awaiting data feed

An instrument, not a report. A lamp says whether the instrument behind a figure reported within its window; the key below says what else each state can mean. Beside a figure, the data clause says what period the figure covers — a figure can be checked this morning and describe last year. A panel says blind rather than zero when it cannot see.

Live
the feed reported within its window
Degraded
running, but something is wrong with the reading — for example it is late, part of it failed, a check failed, or it is not calibrated; its panel names the cause
Blind
the feed has not reported within its window; any figure shown is the last one it reported, with its date, drawn muted
Contested
the method itself is disputed, and the panel says why
Derived
worked out from other readings rather than measured
HIGH MEDIUM LOW
a conclusion’s confidence, set by the rule that draws it; the status line under it is separate, and says how that conclusion’s inputs stand now
FATAL BIAS GAP
a panel’s own known defects: FATAL breaks the method, BIAS skews the answer, GAP means something needed is missing
—instruments reporting liveof collectors run in the last 26 h

Instruments

Each panel below is one instrument, with its source and its status; most carry a lamp, and many list their known defects.
Model publicationBlind · Awaiting feed

How many AI models are being published to the public model-sharing site this instrument tracks, and how many of those are packaged to run on ordinary hardware.

—repository creations
(deployable)
—
—
merge / derivative
—

Quantization mechanically precedes deployment. A safety-stripped repository is a census dimension, not an accusation — abliteration is legal and published.

huggingface.co/api/models · keyless
Crawler identityBlind · Awaiting feed

Whether the major AI companies still publish the address lists that let a website tell their web-crawling apart from an impostor.

—sources archived
stable content
—
sliding field masked
—

OpenAI's Web Bot Auth directory recomputes exp = now + 7 days on every request. Hashing the document reports a key rotation on every fetch, always falsely. The detector hashes key material only. The 7-day window is not documented publicly.

5 operators · WBA JWKS + crawler CIDRs
Facility inventoryBlind · Awaiting feed

Data-centre buildings that volunteer mappers have recorded, and how often the map also records who operates them.

—in declared frame
operator attributed
—
ID (clean join)
—
build date present
—
  • Fewer sites shown in a region can mean fewer people mapping it, not fewer data centres. Counts are not comparable between regions.OSM coverage is uneven by region. North America and Western Europe run far denser than APAC and Latin America — a cross-region count measures mapping effort, not infrastructure.
  • The underlying map does not record when a site was built. That date has to be found in permits or satellite imagery instead.Build dates are absent from OSM and must come from permits or satellite.

A declared frame, not a world total. Open the Explorer →

OpenStreetMap telecom=data_center · ODbL
Virginia — sites the regulator records as data centres, and their reported NOxBlind · Awaiting feed

Virginia’s regulator publishes air-pollution figures for individual data-centre sites — figures the . At a site whose permit has not changed, a rise means its ran.

—sites recorded as data centres
sites with NOx filed
—
NOx reported
—

The regulator already tracks the fuel — as NOx. The reported figures are fuel burned × emission factor, filed under penalty. Year-over-year NOx at a site with no permit change is “did the generators run.” The emissions table holds the current year only and overwrites itself; this record began 2026-09-14.

VA DEQ ArcGIS layers 294 / 298 / table 292 · keyless
On-site power — announced vs. operatingRegister

Campuses that intend to generate their own electricity instead of drawing it from the public grid. Announced capacity is what a permit or filing carries; operating capacity is what a document says is actually running — and where a document says a plant runs but none states the megawatts, the reading is left blank rather than written as zero.

—MW announced
announced
—
operating
—
  • Only projects with a document behind them are listed here. An announcement on its own does not qualify.— register projects trace to a permit, a regulator’s docket, a securities filing or a regulated stock-exchange report. A document can prove a project exists without proving its size, so a documented project is not a documented megawatt figure.
  • The claim that these campuses install about three times as much generation as they draw from the grid does not hold up.The “3× generator-to-grid ratio for AI campuses” is refuted — JLARC 1.0–1.25×, AWS New Carlisle and Microsoft Fairwater ~1.07×. The only ~3× cases are prime turbines at off-grid sites.
OEM 10-Qs via data.sec.gov · call transcripts · air permits
Overnight demand — Dominion VirginiaDegraded

Electricity demand at night across ’s Virginia territory, against the same months six years earlier. Night is when ordinary demand falls away and steady industrial loads stand out.

—MW
awaiting collector — research anchor +3,667 MW · +42.5% (EIA-930, Jul–Dec 2019 vs 2025)
weather-normalisation not applied±unquantified

Jul–Dec 2019 vs 2025. Other PJM sub-regions serve as a built-in placebo set.

  • Some of this rise is weather. Hot nights push electricity use up on their own, and the later period was the warmer one — that has not been corrected for.Not weather-normalised. 3 a.m. load on a 26 °C night exceeds a 14 °C night, and Jul–Dec 2025 was warmer in the mid-Atlantic.
  • The comparison regions are meant to show what normal looks like. The two that share this region’s kind of load are left out, but the flattest of the rest are falling for unrelated reasons, which makes the gap here look bigger than it is.Control pool leans low. AEP and DAY are both Ohio and both treated, so they are excluded; the flattest remaining controls carry behind-meter solar and manufacturing decline, which pushes the null down and inflates the effect.
  • Two snapshots six years apart cannot show whether this region was already pulling ahead of its neighbours — and it was.Two six-month windows cannot test parallel trends. Dominion was already PJM's fastest-growing zone before 2019.
  • Nobody has yet checked this figure against the utility’s own published data-centre load. Until it lands near that number, treat it as untested.Not yet anchored. Dominion publishes contracted data-centre load in its IRP. Until this is within ~20% of that figure, the instrument is unvalidated.
EIA-930 hourly · collector + research anchor
Queue vs. reality — ERCOTBlind · Awaiting feed

Power plants to the , and how much of that capacity has actually signed a .

—MW with executed interconnection agreement
generator capacity under study
—
interconnection agreement executed
—

Large load — approved vs. appearedDegraded · Static anchor

Large new electricity users approved to connect in Texas, against how much of that demand ever showed up.

Bar length: share of the approved large load

approved large load
9,042
observed peak
3,883

57% of approved load has never appeared. Phantom demand — the same project shopped across utilities — quantified from the operator's own figures. Grid planners cannot currently separate real from speculative.

  • You cannot currently reproduce these two numbers from a public source. The report the grid operator publishes covers power stations, not large electricity users.Not re-derivable from public MIS. Report 15933 is the generator-interconnection queue, not large load; the large-load series awaits NPRR1267 or LLWG materials. These figures stand as a dated research anchor.
ERCOT MIS GIS report (monthly vintage) · large-load anchor 2026-09-13
Thermal footprint — off-siteContested

Can a data centre’s waste heat be seen from space? Largely no. This panel records why the method fails, so that no claim gets built on it.

0.079K ceiling at 4.5 km, for a 130 MW campus
  • At a site cooled by evaporation the heat leaves as water vapour, and vapour carries no surface temperature for a satellite to read.Latent partition. A 300 MW evaporatively cooled site rejects ~120 kg/s as latent heat — no surface temperature, thermodynamically invisible to a radiometer.
  • The roof is insulated, so only one or two percent of the heat reaches the surface a satellite can see. Over most of the building the image cannot tell whether the servers are running.Roof decoupling. R-30+ insulation passes 3–15 W/m², 1–2% of the 650 W/m² rejected. Most of the polygon is blind to whether the servers are on.
  • Cooling equipment is bare metal, which reflects the cold sky instead of showing its own heat. Hot machinery can read cooler than the asphalt beside it, so even the direction of the effect is not guaranteed.Emissivity. Cooling gear is finned aluminium, LWIR ε 0.05–0.30. It reflects cold sky; a 50 °C coil bank can read at or below adjacent asphalt — the sign is not guaranteed.
  • Each site is compared against nearby ground that is never quite like it, and that mismatch is about the size of the signal being looked for. Measuring more sites does not shrink it.Systematic offset. Per-campus control mismatch is ±0.5–1.5 K and does not shrink with sample size — comparable to the whole-parcel signal.
  • One of the two sensors covers only Los Angeles in the archive used here. Asking it about a Virginia site returns an empty result that looks exactly like a completely cloudy day.ECOSTRESS on Earth Engine holds only the LA metro. A bounds filter over Ashburn returns an empty collection with no error — indistinguishable from total cloud.
  • The other sensor’s coverage band stops short of northern Europe, so the European sites named here have no free night-time thermal option at all.52°N–52°S coverage. Dublin, Amsterdam and the Nordic belt have no free night-thermal option.

Still worth measuring: within-site change over time. Differencing a site against itself cancels the offset, and the waste-heat quadrant — night-positive, day-neutral — is discriminating. The off-site claim is bounded at 0.079 K; the on-site change is not.

Landsat C2 ST_B10 · ECOSTRESS via LP DAAC
Compute capacity estimateContested

Turning of power into a count of AI chips. The arithmetic is possible; the answer would be wrong by a factor of several — so the reason is published instead of the number.

——GW · not publishable at achievable precision

Read this as a range, not a filled bar. The mark at the centre is the best estimate, the shaded span is where the true figure would fall 95 times in 100 — from about four times smaller to four times larger — and the ends of the track are ten times either way. Equal distances along it are equal multiples, not equal amounts.

÷10÷3.9×3.9×10
log axis, ×/÷⁠10 span · interval ×/÷⁠3.9 at 95%
MW → rack density → PUE → W/GPU → utilisation
  • How much power a square foot of data-centre floor draws varies sixfold between older halls and AI halls. That one unknown is larger than every other source of error combined.Whitespace W/sq ft spans 100–600 (legacy colo to AI halls). σ(ln) = 0.545 — the single dominant term, larger than every other combined.
  • Adding up many facilities does not cancel the error out. The same assumption is applied to every one of them, so it carries straight through to the total instead of averaging away.Aggregation does not rescue it. W/sq ft, PUE and utilisation are one shared assumption applied to every facility — systematic, not independent. The national total is still ×/÷3.3.
  • Real floor area is known for about two percent of the facilities. For the rest it is inferred from who runs the site and which metro area it is in.Floor area exists for 246 buildings in one county — ~2% of a 10,000-facility inventory. The rest is imputed from operator and metro at ×/÷5–10.
  • Deciding whether a figure belongs to one building or to a whole campus is by itself a meaningful part of the error.Attribution. Building-versus-campus assignment alone contributes σ(ln) = 0.200.

A facility estimated at 30 MW has a 95% interval of 8 to 118 MW. Published only as a screening bound with the interval attached — never as a point estimate, never without this list beside it.

error propagation · wapr-system-design · interconnection + disclosure + Nvidia denominator
Grid mix where each operator's sites sitBlind · Awaiting feed

What kinds of power station are actually running on the grid where each company's data centres sit. This is the electricity physically flowing in those places, not what a company says it buys.

Awaiting data feed
What these figures do and do not mean — every one of them applies
    EIA-930 hourly net generation by balancing authority
    Live anomalies near mapped sitesBlind · Awaiting feed

    Unusual conditions happening right now near the mapped sites. These are things happening to the sites, not things the sites cause.

    —conditions outside their normal range

    Deliberately not scored. This list is never totted up into a severity total — many things happening at once is what ordinary chance looks like, and level-setting belongs to the WAPR Condition rules alone.

      typed anomaly feeds
      Ireland — the one country that counts data centresBlind · Awaiting feed

      Ireland is the only country that officially counts data-centre electricity as its own category. Everywhere else the sector disappears into general business use.

      —GWh
      data centres
      —
      earliest quarter
      —

      CSO Ireland
      How far a campus's heat actually reachesComputed bound · not a feed

      People expect a data centre to warm the land around it, and to see that heat spreading on a map. Drawn at true size, there is no plume to draw — this panel is the honest version of that picture.

      Awaiting data feed

      What this bound does and does not say — every one of them applies

        WAPR environmental research synthesis · computed, not asserted
        Crane notices near mapped sitesBlind · Awaiting feed

        Before a tall crane goes up, someone has to file a public notice with the aviation authority — so the paperwork appears months before a building does.

        —sites where cranes cluster far more tightly than the neighbourhood is building anyway
        Awaiting data feed

        A watchlist signal, not a finding. It suggests where to look and settles nothing on its own.

        What this signal does and does not mean — every one of them applies
          FAA obstruction-evaluation case archives
          Register of the unmeasurableeach row backed by an executed queryBlind by design

          Things no public instrument can currently read, each with the precise reason it is out of reach and the record that shows it.

          The most defensible output of this instrument is a precise account of what no instrument can reach. It cannot be scooped by a commercial database, because the commercial databases are part of the finding.

          What is unknowableMechanismEvidence
          Loading the register…

          Latest, sourced

          Titles are verbatim from the publisher. Nothing is summarised or rewritten. Every item carries its publisher and link. Tier: primary = regulator or filing · company = operator statement · trade = industry press · aggregator = Google News, publisher shown.

          Plain-language glossary

          Every term this page uses that is not everyday English. Dotted words anywhere on the page open their definition where they stand.